Early Voting Data... the drug consultants all need

So after taking a look at Virginia yesterday my friend Jacob Hawkins reached out with a great resource from L2, Early Vote Dashboard, and some insight. So we can look a little at what the current EV composition is in Virginia.

So if you believe party modeling in L2 (no offense to L2 but I am always skeptical on modeled party) then current requests are D+41 BUT…

The returned ballots are D+6 right now and much more suburban and rural than we would expect of the state as a whole. In 2023 the L2 model of party for RETURNED ballots was D+19 so this is currently 13 points to the right of 2023 in returns but then 20 points left in requests.

So I really don’t think you can read much into any of this right now but will be fun to monitor.

As an additional bonus here’s the Pennsylvania data from L2:

I would note this is to the right (hard to believe at D+38 lol) of where it historically has been but will be interesting to see how it goes.