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Florida Early Vote
Things looking good in sunshine state, data on early vote composition
Mark Harris
October 23, 2024
2020 | 2022 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|
31R-44D | 36R-43D | 36.5R-42.5D | |
EV | 46R-31D | 51R-29D | 54R-28D |
Total Early | 38R-38D | 43R-36.7D | 42.6R-37.4D |
D+0.08 | R+6.3 | R+5.2 |
Florida is no place of good news for Democrats. We’re looking at currently R+5.2 and likely to grow as more EV drives the early vote versus mail AND in 2020 Election Day was R+21 and 2022 it was R+27. I mean it’s possible to imagine some of these Republican voters used to be Election Day but you’re still looking at AT LEAST R+15 on Election Day. I have to imagine the electorate settles in around R+8 or 9.
The fat lady has not sung anywhere but if you are a Democrat you can’t be happy about where things are headed. It’s also the case like elsewhere that the GOP is turnout out more of their lower turnout voters. Again a leading indicator.