New PA Registration Data

Republicans continue to gain in Pennsylvania

TLDR— GOP gains 5,081 voters bringing the registration gap down to 333,315. GOP gain in 63 of the 67 counties including big gains in Westmoreland, Bucks, York, Lancaster, Luzerne, and Washington. Dems gain in 4 out of 67: Allegheny, Montgomery, Delaware, Philadelphia.

Ususal caveats that voter registration remains a lagging indicator but man I would much rather be on the team gaining steam not losing it. Luzerne which just flipped blue-to-red last week gained +327 more putting the GOP lead there at 410 votes.

An analysis of how Pennsylvanians vote

We pulled together how voting by mail has worked in Pennsylvania since its inception during the pandemic in 2020. The chart notes what % of each parties votes came by mail versus Election Day.

The problem for analyzing this year is that every election since 2020 has looked very different versus 2020. The Dem % is down from 55% in 2020 to an average of 38% in the years since then, and there’s a similar Republican pattern. 20% of Republicans voted in the mail in 2020 but that average is now down to 11.5%.

Anyway will be a fascinating to see how things develop this cycle with Republican mail voting requests up and Democratic requests down.